Theodore Herzl (in 1900) and David Ben Gurion (in 1947) did not subordinate their vision and long-term strategy to tenuous demographic constraints: A Jewish minority of 8% and 33% respectively between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. Their defiance of odds was responsible for the 1948 establishment of the Jewish State.
In 2010, there is a solid 67% Jewish majority in the combined area of pre-1967 Israel and Judea and Samaria. However, some Israeli politicians employ toxic demographic assets. They inflate the number of Arabs in Judea and Samaria in order to scare the Jewish State into a retreat from a most critical area, historically and security-wise.
The following OpEd, by Haim Rozenberg, former Head of Long-Term Planning at RAFAEL (Israel Defense Ministry's Armament Development Authority, Israel's leading defense R&D establishment), addresses the issue of toxic demographic assets.
Shabbat Shalom,
Yoram
***********************
Toxic Demographic Assets
News First Class, February 8, 2010
Haim Rozenberg, former Head Long-Term Planning, RAFAEL (Israel Defense Ministry's Armament Development Authority)Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, said on February 4, 2010 that there are 12 million persons between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean: 6 million Jews and 6 million Arabs. Therefore, he concluded, a two state solution would spare Israel the wrath of Apartheid. Really?!
Barak's conclusion is based on a dramatic error of a two million person gap.
In fact, the total population west of the Jordan River is 10 million. According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics (ICBS), Israel's population includes 6 million Jews and 1.5 million Arabs. The ICBS has not dealt with Judea, Samaria and Gaza Arabs since 1997.
Recent studies, which were published by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/MSPS65.pdf) and by the Institute for Zionist Strategies (http://izsvideo.org/papers/faitelson2009.pdf) have documented about 4 million – and not 6 million - Arabs between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean: 1.5 million in pre-1967 Israel, 1.5 in Judea and Samaria and 1.2 in Gaza.
Barak has been off by two million Arabs!
A solid 67% Jewish majority – without Gaza – has existed west of the Jordan River since 1967. The 10 million persons west of the Jordan River consist of some 6 million Jews, 3 million Arabs in the combined area of "pre-1967 Israel" and Judea and Samaria and 1.2 million Arabs in Gaza.
Current demographic bode well for the Jewish majority, which is expected to grow during the next 20 years due to a substantial rise in fertility since 1995, while Arab/Muslim fertility throughout the Middle East has declined sharply. In addition, the Arab minority has experienced an accelerated net-emigration from Judea and Samaria: 580,000 since 1967.
Barak's position that demography is "more threatening than Iran" is detached from reality. Apparently, scrutinizing facts is not a Barak trait, as was also evident during his May 2000 disorderly withdrawal from Lebanon and his July 2000 Camp David negotiation with Arafat and Clinton.
Demographic trends are not deterministic. The current Jewish demographic tailwind can be bolstered and leveraged, provided that Israeli leaders study the facts and implement a sound demographic policy.
The options available to Jerusalem are not limited to the establishment of a Palestinian state in Judea and Samaria on one hand or an Apartheid state on the other hand. Au contraire, a Palestinian state in Judea and Samaria would severely destabilize the Middle East and deteriorate the region toward chaos.
Demography is a serious subject. It cannot be handled through off-the-cuff statements and must be presented accurately, avoiding toxic demographic assets.
YNET January 10, 2009
Israel’s security policies must take into account 1,400 years of Arab violence
Yoram Ettinger
Galal Nasser, a prominent columnist in Egypt's al-Ahram Weekly recently wrote: "Violence has become the norm in Arab life, both on official and non-official levels...There are many types of violence besetting the domestic scenes of Arab countries, making relations among them unpredictable and unstable.”
Nasser also notes that “Some analysts speculate about a culture of violence and argue that its roots are embedded in religious texts that call for Jihad, that urge the faithful to wage a perpetual fight for virtue and against sinfulness…” he adds that "Neighborliness doesn't seem to count for much either. There are many instances of strained relations among Arab countries. Currently, tensions exist between Morocco and Algeria, Libya and Tunisia, Jordan and Palestine, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iraq.”
Hence, an Israeli withdrawal from the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria (the most effective tank obstacle in the region, overtowering Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and the 9-15 mile sliver along the Mediterranean) would ignore the intense, volatile and unpredictable 1,400 year old inter-Arab violence and its implications for the security requirements of the "infidel" Jewish State.
"The state is involved in the production, export and triggering of violence…nourishing some and instigating others, making deals and manipulating players just to keep its ruling elite in place… Ruling elites are fighting tooth and nail to stay in office. Any challenge to their authority is viewed as an act of war. Meanwhile, the opposition can find itself in dire straits: either it faces a slow and painful death or opts for suicide in a hopeless war…"
Meanwhile, Dr. Marwan Kabalan last month wrote in the Persian Gulf News:
"Six decades ago, immediately after the departure of the colonial powers, the Arab world had big and ambitious dreams: unity, development, equality, prosperity and a reasonable degree of economic independence. Sixty years on, one is tempted to ask if the Arab world has really realized any of these objectives and whether they were realistic and achievable in the first place…
"Arab rulers have clung to power with complete disregard for public interest…The result was total failure in every aspect of state activities…and to a consequent increase in the use of force to maintain order and control…One consequence of these policies was the weakening of national identity and the revival of communal tension. Hence, people in Iraq and Lebanon and many other Arab countries came to identify themselves as Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds and Christians; rather than Iraqis, Lebanese or whatever else.”
"No wonder that the Arab world looks today much more fragmented, poorer and hopeless than it was at the dawn of independence… For most of these ills, Arab regimes have only themselves to blame. They have indeed left us with very little to celebrate.”
In conclusion, due-diligence of the 1,400 year track record of inter-Arab violence behooves the Jewish State to maintain a Middle East-driven (and not wishful-thinking-driven) threshold of security.
Israel's defensible borders and Israel's agreements concluded with Arab leaders must withstand the implications of potential highly probable and violent abrogation and inter-Arab regime-change. Israel's security requirements must be the derivative of the 1,400 year old inter-Arab reality: No inter-Arab comprehensive peace, no inter-Arab compliance with most inter-Arab agreements, no inter-Arab ratification of all inter-Arab borders and no Arab democracy!
Hence, the security indispensability of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria - the Cradle of Jewish history - for the survival of the Jewish State.
http://www.ynet.co.il/english/articles/0,7340,L-3832221,00.htm
YORAM ETTINGER , THE JERUSALEM POST Dec. 30, 2009
In 1948, prime minister David Ben-Gurion declared independence in defiance
of demographic fatalism, which was perpetrated by the country's leading
demographers. He rejected their assumptions that Jews were doomed to be a
minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean, that a massive
aliya wave was not feasible, that the Jewish fertility rate was declining to
below reproduction levels and that the Arab fertility rate would remain the
highest in the world, irrespective of modernity.
Instead, Ben-Gurion highlighted demographic optimism and aliya as top
national priorities, coalesced a solid Jewish majority and planted the seeds
that catapulted Israel to a Middle East power, highly respected for its
civilian and military achievements.
In 2005, in capitulation to demographic fatalism, prime minister Ariel
Sharon retreated from Palestinian terrorism, uprooting 10,000 Jews from Gaza
and Samaria. Sharon abandoned his lifelong ideology of defiance,
subordinating long-term strategy and security concerns to doomsday
demography. Thus, he facilitated Hamas's takeover of Gaza and its ripple
effects: slackened posture of deterrence, intensified shelling of southern
Israel, the 2006 Second Lebanon War, 2008's Operation Cast Lead, the
Goldstone Report and the exacerbated global pressure on Israel.
DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS have played an increasing role in shaping national
security policy since 1992. But what if these assumptions are dramatically
wrong? For example, since the beginning of annual aliya in 1882 - and in
contradiction to demographic projections - the Jewish population between the
Jordan River and the Mediterranean has grown 238-fold, while the Arab
population increased only sixfold. Since 1948, the Jewish population has
increased almost tenfold, and the Arab population has expanded threefold.
Israel's demographers did not believe that a massive aliya would take place
in the aftermath of the 1948/9 war. One million Jews arrived. They projected
no substantial aliya from the communist bloc during the 1970s. Almost
300,000 Jews arrived. They dismissed the possibility of a massive aliya from
the USSR, even if the gates were opened. One million olim relocated from the
Soviet Union to the Jewish homeland during the 1990s.
Contrary to demographic assumptions, a rapid and drastic decline in Muslim
fertility has been documented by the UN Population Division: Iran - 1.7
births per woman; Algeria - 1.8 births; Egypt - 2.5 births; Jordan - three
births; and so on. The Arab fertility rate in pre-1967 Israel declined 20
years faster than projected, and Judea and Samaria Arab fertility has
dropped below 4.5 births per woman, tending toward three births.
Precedents suggest that low fertility rates can rarely be reversed following
a sustained period of significant reduction.
At the same time, the annual number of Jewish births increased by 45 percent
between 1995 (80,400) and 2008 (117,000), mostly impacted by the demographic
surge within the secular sector. The total annual Arab births in pre-1967
Israel stabilized around 39,000 during the same period, reflecting the
successful Arab integration into the infrastructure of education,
employment, health, trade, politics and sports.
AN AUDIT of the documentation of Palestinian births, deaths and migration,
which is conducted by the Palestinian Authority ministries of Health and
Education and Election Commission, as well as by Israel's Border Police and
Central Bureau of Statistics and by the World Bank, reveals huge
misrepresentations by the Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics.
For instance, the PCBS's census includes about 400,000 overseas residents
who have been away for more than one year, ignores high net-emigration
(28,000 in 2008, 25,000 in 2007, etc.) and double-counts some 250,000
Jerusalem Arabs, who are also counted by Israel. Furthermore, a
40,000-60,000 annual birth gap is confirmed between PCBS numbers and the
documentation conducted by the PA Health and Education ministries.
The audit of Palestinian and Israeli documentation exposes a 66% bend in the
current number of Judea and Samaria Arabs - 1.55 million and not 2.5
million, as claimed by the PA. It certifies a solid 67% Jewish majority over
98.5% of the land west of the Jordan River (without Gaza), compared with a
33% and an 8% Jewish minority in 1947 and 1900, respectively, west of the
Jordan River. An 80% majority is attainable by 2035 with the proper
demographic policy, highlighting aliya, returning expatriates, etc.
In conclusion, demographic optimism is well-documented, while demographic
fatalism is resoundingly refuted. There is a demographic problem, but it is
not lethal, and the tailwind is Jewish. Therefore, anyone suggesting that
there is a demographic machete at the throat of the Jewish state and that
Jewish geography must be conceded to secure Jewish demography, is either
grossly mistaken or outrageously misleading.
The writer is executive director of Second Thought, which researches
national security aspects of Judea and Samaria.
www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1261364552534&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Yoram Ettinger
Freeze of Jewish construction in Judea & Samaria is based on a series of erroneous assumptions:
1. A Freeze will not soften – but will intensify - President Obama's criticism of "settlements" in particular and Israeli policy in general. For instance, Prime Minister Netanyahu's June 14, 2009 Two-State-Solution-speech triggered exacerbated pressure by Obama. Moreover, Netanyahu's willingness to exchange hundreds of Palestinian terrorists for Gilad Shalit was followed by US pressure to release more terrorists.
2. A Freeze will not moderate – but will whet the appetite of - the PLO (Abu Mazen) or Hamas (Haniye'); it will radicalize their demands and fuel their terrorism. Former Prime Minister Barak's sweeping concessions, offered to Arafat and Abu Mazen in October 2000, were greeted by the PLO-engineered Second Intifada'. Furthermore, Prime Minister Olmert's unprecedented offer of concessions (including the return of some 1948 refugees) was rebuffed by Abu Mazen.
3. A Freeze re-entrenches the misperception of Jewish presence in Judea & Samaria as a/the obstacle to peace. It diverts attention and resources from the crucial threat to peace: Abu Mazen-engineered hate education - the manufacturing line of terrorists - and Arab rejection of the existence – and not just the size – of the Jewish State.
4. A Freeze and the adherence to Presidential dictate will not transform the White House position on Iran-related matters. Besides, a Freeze and the adherence to Presidential dictate do not constitute a prerequisite to maintaining constructive strategic relations with the USA (e.g. supply of critical military systems and crucial strategic cooperation). In fact, a Freeze and a serial submission to Presidential pressure – just like any other form of retreat - erode Israel's strategic posture in Washington and in the Middle East. Such an attitude ignores the role and power of Congress – especially when it comes to the Jewish State - at the dire expense of Israel's national security.
Is Jewish construction in Judea & Samaria an/the obstacle to peace?
1. In September 2005, Israel uprooted 25 Jewish communities from Gaza and Samaria. Gaza became Judenrein. It paved the road to the meteoric rise of Hamas, and induced more smuggling, manufacturing and launching of missiles at Jewish communities in Southern Israel.
2. President Obama defines Jewish presence in Judea & Samaria as a root cause of Arab hostility toward the Israel. However, Jewish communities were first established in Judea and Samaria after the war of 1967, long after the 1956 and 1948 wars, the 1949-1967 campaign of Arab terrorism, the 1964 establishment of the PLO, the 1929 slaughter of the Hebron Jewish community and the 1929 expulsion of the Gaza Jewish community, the 1920s, 1930s and 1940s slaughter of the Jewish community of Gush Etzion, etc.
3. President Obama considers the 300,000 Jews (17%), who reside among Judea and Samaria's 1.5 million Arabs, an obstacle to peace. Why would he, then, view the 1.4 million Arabs (20%), who reside among pre-1967 Israel's 6 million Jews, as an example of peaceful coexistence?!
4. Obama urges the uprooting of Jewish communities from Judea and Samaria, in order to supposedly advance peace and human rights. Would he, therefore, urge the uprooting of Arab communities from pre-1967 Israel?!
5. Since Obama tolerates Arab opposition to Jewish presence in Judea and Samaria would he tolerate Jewish opposition to Arab presence in pre-1967 Israel?! While any attempt by Jews to reside in Palestinian Authority-controlled areas would trigger a lynching attempt, Arabs have peacefully resided within pre-1967 Israel. Doesn't such a reality highlight the nature of Arab intentions and the real obstacle to peace?!
6. Obama pressures Israel to freeze Jewish construction in Judea and Samaria, in order to avoid unilateral creation of facts on the ground. Shouldn't Obama demand a similar freeze of Arab construction in Judea and Samaria, which is 30 times larger than Jewish construction?! Doesn't the absence of a balanced approach, by Obama, prejudge of the outcome of negotiation?!
7. The 1950-67 Jordanian occupation of Judea and Samaria was recognized only by Britain and Pakistan. The most recent internationally-recognized sovereign over Judea and Samaria was the League of Nations-authorized 1922 British Mandate, which defined Judea and Samaria as part of the Jewish National Home, the cradle of Jewish history. Article 6 of the Mandate indicates the right of Jews to settle in Judea and Samaria. Judge Stephen M. Schwebel, former President of the International Court of Justice, determined that Israel's presence in Judea and Samaria was rooted in self-defense and therefore did not constitute "occupation." Eugene Rostow, former Dean of Yale Law School and former Undersecretary of State and co-author of UN Security Council Resolution 242, asserted that 242 entitled Jews to settle in Judea and Samaria. The Oslo Accord and its derivatives do not prohibit "settlements." Moreover, Israel has constrained construction to state-owned – and not private – land, avoiding expulsion of Arabs landowners.
Freeze of Jewish construction in Judea and Samaria is not a peace-enhancer; it is an appeasement-enhancer.
Straight from the Jerusalem Cloakroom #230
by Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger
The assumption that the proposed Palestinian state would advance peace, Middle East stability and US interests, defies Middle East reality.
The March 1979 Israel-Egypt peace treaty was concluded due to Prime Minister Begin’s and President Sadat’s determination to defy President Carter’s and National Security Advisor Brzezinski’s insistence to highlight the Palestinian issue. Initially, the US Administration opposed the Begin-Sadat approach, which considered the Palestinian issue a deal-breaker. Begin and Sadat bypassed the Palestinian issue, notwithstanding Palestinian and radical Arab terrorist threats. They overruled the “Palestine Firsters” in the US Administration. The non-Palestinian approach to peace prevailed, thus achieving the first Israel-Arab peace treaty, which lowered the prospects of an overall Arab-Israeli war, decreased regional tension and advanced US interests.
The October 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty has also withstood Palestinian opposition and has prevailed despite a systematic Israeli war against PLO and Hamas terrorism. During the 1994 ceremony, Jordan's top military commanders expressed their opposition to the establishment of a Palestinian state "lest it constitute a death-sentence to the Hashemite regime." They expressed their disillusionment with Palestinian commitments, "which are signed in the morning and violated in the evening."
The two peace treaties demonstrate that – notwithstanding Arab rhetoric - the road to peace goes through Arab capitals and not through Ramallah or Gaza, that the Palestinian issue does not constitute the crown-jewel of Arab politics, that the Palestinians do not possess veto power over Arab policy-making, that the Palestinian issue has not been the cause to the Arab-Israeli conflict and that the Palestinian issue has been employed by Middle East radicals as a fuel – and not as water – to regional violence.
On the other hand, the 1993 Oslo Accord and its derivatives (Wye Accord, Mitchell Plan, Clinton Path, Road Map, "Disengagement," Two States Solution) have shifted the focus to the Palestinian issue. They manufactured a series of short-lived illusions of peace, dozens of initiatives and agreements, which were summarily violated by the Palestinians. They yielded unprecedented Palestinian hate-education and terrorism, enhanced the clout of Palestinian terrorists and rogue regimes and undermined regional stability. Never has a "peace process" produced so much bloodshed, bringing the negotiating parties farther from peace and closer to an all-out war.
President Obama's Two States solution is based on a series of erroneous assumptions. Therefore, it constitutes an erroneous policy. For instance, the delusion that a Palestinian state would produce peaceful coexistence has ignored PLO/PA violent and treacherous track record. It has overlooked the fact that the last 1,400 years have not produced an inter-Arab comprehensive peace and compliance with most inter-Arab agreements. Instead, the last 1,400 years have highlighted the Middle East – and most recently the Palestinians - as the role model of international terrorism, hijacking, homicide bombing, systematic violation of agreements and hate-education. In fact, Palestinians have been involved in brutal civil wars since the 1930s, most recently the PLO-Hamas bloodshed.
Furthermore, a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River would doom to oblivion the pro-US Hashemite regime east of the river, would reward oppressors of Christian communities, would be a terrorist state, would generate a tailwind to Iraq's pro-Saddam elements, would provide Iran, North Korea, Russia and China with a foothold in the eastern Mediterranean and would add an anti-US vote at the UN.
The treatment of the Israeli-Arab conflict with the "Palestinian pill" has exacerbated regional instability, threatening vital US interests. It's time to rescind the use of the "Palestinian pill" and consider other prescriptions.
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